Photo credit:
This past Election Day, Atlanta voters overwhelmingly supported a half-cent sales tax increase aimed at improving MARTA service. The tax has the potential to raise between $2.5 and $3.5 billion through 2057. This sizable funding package should satisfy Atlantans pining for new transit investment and lays the groundwork for other cities and counties to follow suit.If used wisely, the new revenue could transform MARTA into a world-class transit system that appeals to a broad range of Atlantans by providing real alternatives to driving. But if used poorly, the agency runs the risk of squandering the funds on flashy projects unlikely to draw new riders into the system. Early indications that MARTA plans to emphasize light rail along the Atlanta Beltline, the 22-mile intown loop of parks and trails, are not promising. MARTA officials said during the run up to the referendum that improved bus service would be one of the first projects voters would see because of the minimal construction requirements and relatively low cost associated with rolling out additional vehicles But this mode of transportation deserves more than that.The likelihood of getting more people to use transit depends on a variety of factors. But the research is clear on one key point: The most effective way to increase public transit ridership is to run more vehicles and reduce travel times on existing routes. The fastest way to make this happen is by improving local bus service. Yes, buses typically run in mixed traffic, so they’re affected by congestion. But bus riders are not driving, meaning that overall congestion is reduced. New service can also start almost immediately as there’s no need to lay down new tracks. Other straightforward measures — dedicated bus lanes, off-board fare payment, signal prioritization, and stop consolidation — can decrease both travel and waiting times, drawing in new riders at low cost.Importantly, new bus service can be easily deployed south of I-20 and on the westside, where residents would get an economic boost from improved service and demographics are favorable to transit use. A well-integrated bus network with frequent and reliable service will create ripple effects across the region, benefitting MARTA riders as well as drivers. Looking at projected ridership and cost numbers makes it clear that bus expansion should be the first priority for any new MARTA revenue. Results reported by the Transportation Research Board show that cutting waiting time in half by running more buses can increase ridership on a route by 25 percent. In the current MARTA system, about half of all routes have average wait times of 25-45 minutes. My calculations indicate that doubling the number of buses that run on these routes — dropping the frequencies to 12.5 and 22.5 minutes — has the potential to bring about 25,000 new daily riders into the system at a cost of about $450 million over the life of the tax. This works out to about $20,000 per new rider. In their most ambitious streetcar scenarios, analyses conducted by the city show that partial Beltline and cross-town streetcars are expected to generate about 15,000 new riders. But because they need substantial new infrastructure, the total cost to construct, operate, and maintain new streetcars, according to my estimates, will be $1.4 billion, relying in part on now-tenuous federal matching funds. This translates into a cost per rider of $93,000. Streetcars running along the Beltline project a very powerful image. But their expected performance does not justify their cost. Focusing expansion on Atlanta’s existing core bus and rail network will ensure the new service will be well-used, connecting people to economic opportunities, keeping cars off the road, and setting MARTA up for a future of long-term health and stability. Additional funding remaining after improving bus service can be dedicated to amenities like bus shelters, benches, and realtime information systems for riders, extending and adding infill stations along the already-effective MARTA rail system, and purchasing modern vehicles.As MARTA begins public outreach around project selection, they should not consider Beltline streetcars to be a foregone conclusion. In general, the agency has to be more transparent about how the new revenue will be spent and should seek to identify priorities important to Atlantans — congestion reduction, providing service to those who need it most, preventing displacement and gentrification — and select projects that address those priorities. Making transit viable in Atlanta will also require local jurisdictions to adopt land-use policies that foster transit-friendly places by promoting density and creating safe places to walk and bicycle, all while prioritizing public engagement and education. In cities where transit is a real option, the overwhelming majority of riders walk to stops and stations. These changes will not happen overnight, but spending new — and precious — revenues wisely can place us on a trajectory where
not driving in a region built around the car might become a real option. Χ
Alex Karner, Ph.D. is an assistant professor in the School of City & Regional Planning at Georgia Tech. Follow him on Twitter @AlexKarner.